Now I know you’re thinking wait, you’re crazy. You can think about election predictions way in advance? Yes we can! Well, okay maybe we can’t predict the future. Human behavior is unpredictable (as you know). But the last few elections have been pretty crazy… we’ve seen the masses go back to the Democrats, and then we’ve seen them go back to vote for the Republican party… what are we going to see next? Who are they going to vote for? Many election analysts have claimed that this was an anti-incumbent election. Some people (show a name) have even went on to claim that this was an anti Washington-insider election. This is a little debatable because while it’s true that many Democrats who have held tenured seats for a long time like Alan Grayson and Chris Dodd lost and the Republicans have taken control of Congress, Republicans and the Tea Party failed to take control of the Senate and people have elected some previous Republican insiders such as Marco Rubio (who was the former speaker of the House) despite the fact that it was supposedly an anti-incumbent election, or an anti-insider election, or however you want to put it.
There are a few elections coming up in 2012. There is not only the congressional election which happens every 2 years, but also the Presidential election. I predict that as far as the Presidential election a number of things could happen. I don’t think that Republicans have a viable chance to win the Presidency. One of their main guys is Mitt Romney… he is a front-runner, but he is a very staunch believer in religion. While Obama’s religious beliefs have been questioned and put a certain sect of voters against him that questioned whether he was a Christian or not, the idea that someone could be so religious and get into office also scares people. Back when John F Kennedy was in the White House people were afraid of him because he was a Catholic. Ron Paul has been polling well in straw-polls around the Republican conventions (give an example). Analysts think that he doesn’t really have a shot, but, perhaps given the tide of the Tea Party, maybe the electorate might want a libertarian like Ron Paul who believes in ending the Federal Reserve and has a strict interpretation of the Constitution. But voters would most likely want a younger face in the White House. So, I don’t think Republicans have a chance at winning the Presidential election. I don’t believe the 2010 midterm elections were a mandate for Republicans. I believe it was only an election against the Democrats and the stimulus package and that many people in America are facing hard times and they are dissatisfied with the pace of the “change” that they are getting.
I believe one of two things could happen with the Democrats. One, the progressives who agree with Obama’s belief in consensus building could form a coalition against Barack Obama and vote him out of office. Jon Perr, on www.crooksandliars.com wrote a piece slamming Barack Obama for his belief in consensus building. Democrats could elect someone else who is more of a hard-lined progressive who believes in liberal causes and who isn’t willing to compromise. Secondly, Democrats have claimed that the Republican party is a very obstructionist party that gets in the way of getting things done. According to www.HuffingtonPost.com, Democrats like Representative Paul Rhodes have called Republicans extreme obstructionists for wanting to limit the budget deficit. Rep Jim McDermott has called their actions an assault on the New Deal. If Obama works with the Republicans on balancing things like the budget he could be seen as an obstructionist in the eyes of the members of the Democratic party.
I could also see the 2012 Presidential election turning out well for Obama. When Bill Clinton was President he faced a similar situation in the 1990s. He faced a Republican congress and was able to balance the budget with them and we were able to experience budget surpluses. Bill Clinton worked with Republicans on the North American Free Trade Agreement and he also worked with them on welfare reform. Getting re-elected shouldn’t be a problem for the Democrats, even in this climate. It all depends on how the Democrats plan to work with the Republican party, if Obama can work with the Republicans without seeming too much like he sacrifices liberal values that the Democrats admire, and if the Democrats try to elect someone else